War-torn Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Polling materials in Myanmar
The country's military is conducting a phased vote over the coming weeks.

The nation is holding an election in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".

Timothy Phillips
Timothy Phillips

Lena Vermeer is a financial analyst and blogger specializing in personal finance and investment strategies.